Xeneta reports 5pc rise in November air cargo volumes

Global air cargo volumes rose five per cent year on year in November, continuing a seasonal uplift, but Xeneta warned the industry's e-commerce growth engine is losing momentum after two years of strong expansion, reported Singapore's Payload Asia.

Demand growth in September and October was three per cent and four per cent respectively, keeping the market on track for four per cent growth in 2025. Capacity expansion broadly matched demand in November, but spot rates fell five per cent year on-year to US$2.73 per kg, suggesting carriers are chasing market share at the expense of yields.

Corridor-level rates were lower across all major trades. Europe-North America saw its first annual decline, down eight per cent, while Northeast Asia showed resilience with single-digit falls and double-digit month-on-month gains during the Black Friday season. Southeast Asia routes suffered double-digit drops, linked to capacity increases and e-commerce restrictions.

Xeneta chief air freight officer Niall van de Wouw said actual US tariffs averaged 10-12 per cent, less severe than feared, but warned impacts will grow in 2026 as costs are passed to consumers. He noted US confidence is already weakening, with higher prices likely to exacerbate sentiment.

Mr Van de Wouw highlighted flat growth in China's cross-border e-commerce in October after 27 months of near 40 per cent gains. Shipments to Europe rose 47 per cent, but volumes to Asia fell three per cent and to the US plunged 51 per cent under new de minimis rules. EU reforms in 2026 could further affect flows.

Looking ahead, Xeneta expects only two to thee per cent demand growth in 2026, with supply outpacing demand and rates under pressure. Freight forwarders may seek market share to meet growth targets, adding further downward pressure on yields. Airlines are increasingly consulting Xeneta to validate shipper rates.

https://www.shippingazette.com/news?news_id=9251200000239

2025/12/16 16:26:00