Emerging Markets: A Decisive Decade

Emerging markets are strategically positioned to drive global economic growth through the expansion of their domestic markets and to benefit from the reconfiguration of supply chains, trade and investment.

In this latest Look Forward report, Emerging Markets: A Decisive Decade, our authors explore the factors and trends that will shape these vibrant economies. Our inaugural edition focused on emerging markets presents deep data and analysis that highlight how supportive demographics, abundant natural resources, evolving trade dynamics, and technological innovations in energy and manufacturing could propel the development of these markets. However, a global landscape characterized by geopolitical disruption, climate change, and limits to frictionless trade and globalization presents complex challenges.

This research provides essential intelligence for decision-makers looking beyond the near term. With a view to the longer horizon, we provide a framework to explore the diverse characteristics across emerging markets while also assessing the critical factors — market structure, institutional quality and infrastructure efficiency — that will impact their ability to navigate these complex challenges and harness their economic potential. We examine which emerging markets are set to climb the income ladder and how productivity growth will be essential to unlocking faster development.

Demographic changes and stresses from climate impacts will place upward pressure on government debt. Even so, improved external positions, higher reserve buffers and increased monetary effectiveness have made emerging markets less vulnerable to financial shocks. Population growth, urbanization and economic expansion will increase demand for electricity. Upskilling the labor force, improving infrastructure and competing with advanced economies in new technologies such as robotics and AI will determine emerging markets’ longer-term competitiveness. Among the many critical questions that must be considered are how these countries will approach the multidimensional transition, including their efforts to decarbonize their markets, their vulnerability to climate risk and their financing needs for climate change action and mitigation.

We hope these articles initiate a constructive dialogue about the future of emerging economies, and we look forward to discussing these topics further and hearing your own insights.

https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/look-forward/look-forward-volume-7

2024/10/17 20:50:00