At the beginning of 2021, the outlook for the shipping market is better than anticipated mid of 2020. Based on Clarksons Research, global seaborne trade volumes are expected to decline by only 3.6% in 2020.
Apart from the cruise industry, which has been badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the car carrier segment, that has also run into rough seas, the three largest market segments of merchant shipping, namely tankers, bulkers and containers, seem to be slowly but surely recovering. A look at tanker rate trends shows that 2020 was a roller coaster year, with high profits in the first half and low returns in the second. Time charter rates for tankers jumped to an all-time high at the beginning of 2020, and then plunged during Q4.
After a depressing start in 2020, the signs regarding the bulker market are now increasingly pointing to a recovery. The Baltic Dry Index was close to the historic lows of spring 2016 in the first third of last year, but recovered in the second half in parallel with the opening of the markets. However, the average value for 2020 is still about 30% below the average of 2018 and 2019.
In the Corona lockdown, demand for consumer goods has recently surged after a rather subdued start to 2020. However, demand is so high that containers and slots are in short supply, leading to exorbitant increases in freight rates in the second half of 2020. In some cases, bookings of 40-foot containers cost more than US$ 9000, instead of US$ 2000 just a few weeks earlier.
After a growth of 3.2 %, the world merchant fleet passed the 2 billion tons deadweight mark at the beginning of 2021. With a view to "Green Shipping", 30 % of tonnage on order (336 ships) and 4 % of the fleet tonnage (551 ships) is now LNG fuel capable. Furthermore, more than 4,100 ships of the world merchant fleet are equipped with SOx scrubber technology, this corresponds to about 20 % of the tonnage.
Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns about technology as well as the choice of fuel, the global order backlog continued to shrink. Across all sectors, the global order book tonnage represented just 7.7 % of the total merchant fleet at the start of 2021, according to Clarkson Research, this is the lowest level in 30 years.
https://www.isl.org/en/news/the-covid19-pandemic-shaken-up-the-maritime-economy
2021/3/15 9:59:41